“一带一路”国家战略的国际经济效应研究——基于CGE模型的分析

Study on International Economic Effects of“One Belt and One Road”National Strategy Based on CGE Model

中国与"一带一路"辐射国家和地区展开投资贸易合作,解决投资贸易便利化问题,消除投资和贸易壁垒,共同商建自由贸易区是"一带一路"建设的重点内容。本文运用CGE模型构建社会核算矩阵,在此基础上模拟不同自由贸易情境进行实证分析。结果表明,中国与"一带一路"沿线国家和地区建成自由贸易区后,参与"一带一路"各国的GDP增长率、进出口总额均将有不同程度提高;参与"一带一路"各国的贸易平衡趋于稳定而中国贸易顺差进一步扩大;中国的福利、贸易条件得到明显改善。并结合自由贸易情境分析结果,对中国对外直接投资净额进行了压力测试,结果表明"一带一路"沿线国家和地区资本需求较高,中国对外直接投资净额相对于压力情境还存在一定的资金缺口,同时侧面反映了中国对"一带一路"沿线国家和地区的投资空间巨大。

The core content of ＂One Belt and One Road＂ strategy is to eliminate trade barriers, establish free trade area and promote investment and trade cooperation between the countries along the Silk Road. Firstly, using the CGE model, this paper establishes the social accounting matrix. Then, the empiri- cal analysis reveals that after the establishment of free trade area between China and the countries along ＂One Belt and One Road＂, the growth rate of GDP and the total export-import volume of the countries along ＂One Belt and One Road＂ will be enhanced to various extent. The trade balance of the countries along ＂One Belt and One Road＂ is tending towards stability while China＇ s fa- vorable balance of trade will expand further.The welfare and trade conditions in China will be improved greatly. After that, combining the above results, this pa- per conducts the pressure test on the foreign net direct investment of China. It is found that the capital demand of the countries along ＂One Belt and One Road＂ is huge and there are certain funding gaps of foreign net direct invest- ment of China. But from another perspective, China has great investment space in the construction of ＂One Belt and One Road＂ .