金融市场分割、信贷失衡与中国制造业出口——基于效率和融资能力双重异质性视角的研究

Financial Market Segmentation,Credit Allocation Imbalance and Manufacturing Exports of China:Perspectives from Firm-level Heterogeneity on Productivity and Financing Capability

中国的金融改革已进入攻坚阶段,金融业配置资源和服务实体经济的能力大幅提升,但市场中的金融摩擦依旧突出,制约了金融改革的破冰之旅。本文研究金融市场进入壁垒所导致的民间和正规金融市场的利率分割,以及因信贷供给过于集中而出现的信贷配置失衡对总出口的影响。为此,我们在信息不对称框架下,构建了企业具有效率和融资能力双重异质性的贸易模型,并发现金融市场分割对所有企业出口均有阻碍作用,而信贷配置失衡因能促使大量享受信贷支持的低效率企业实现出口,却只造成少数受信贷约束的高效率企业退出国外市场,所以可在一定程度上促进总出口。然而,金融摩擦的两种出口效应对国民收益均具有潜在的负向作用。最后,基于城市和行业二维数据的经验研究得到了与模型预测一致且稳健的估计结果。

China＇s financial reform has entered a fortified stage, with the ability of resources allocation and service to the real economy increasing dramatically. While financial friction is still serious, which restricts the financial reform＇s icebreaking. This paper analyzes the export effects of interest segmentation between folk and formal financial market caused by entry barriers of financial market, and of credit allocation imbalance resulting from excessive concentration of credit allocation. Based on the framework of asymmetric information, we construct a model with firm-level heterogeneity on productivity and financing capability, in which financial markets segmentation causes a negative impact on export, while credit allocation imbalance has a positive export effect, by spurring considerable low-productivity firms to engage in foreign market with credit supporting, but only causing few high-productivity firms with credit constrained to quit from foreign market. However, those export effects of financial friction may both reduce national welfare. These distinctive predictions are tested and confirmed by two-dimensional data of China＇s city and manufacturing industry.