江苏省终端能源消费CO_2排放总量测算及驱动因素研究

Research on Total Estimates and Driving Factors of the End-use Energy Consumption's CO_2 Emissions in Jiangsu Province

电力、热力在终端能源消费CO2排放总量测算中一直被视作零排放,但这不利于终端能源消费部门的节能减排,也不符合"共同但有区别的责任"原则。本文基于生产二次能源(电力、热力)所需化石能源的消耗量和省域内二次能源的消费量测算电力、热力CO2排放因子,并从生产端和终端两视角出发,考虑二次能源当量值和等价值,计算二次能源CO2排放终端承担比率,进而全面测算2000-2012年江苏省19种(包含电力、热力)终端能源消费CO2排放总量。运用LMDI 1法,把CO2排放变动分解为11个驱动因素。结果表明:12000-2012年间,江苏省终端能源消费CO2排放总量由15 223.90万t上升到46 396.20万t:其中,生产部门CO2排放总量由14 242.30万t上升到43 481.15万t,以年平均占比94.52%成为最大的CO2排放部门,生活部门CO2排放总量由981.60万t上升到2 915.04万t,并以年均8.73%的速度增长。22000-2012年间,经济规模和人均收入分别以累积贡献度147.09%和77.51%成为生产与生活部门CO2排放量增长的最大驱动因素,反映出江苏CO2排放与经济发展、居民生活水平提高密切相关。32000-2012年间,江苏CO2排放量下降的主要驱动因素源于生产部门能源利用效率的提高和产业结构调整的成效,累积贡献度分别为-39.09%和-11.96%。4电力、热力能源结构碳强度在2000-2012年间累计减少了739.77万t CO2排放,成为江苏省未来强有力的减排驱动因素。最后从推进江苏省产业转型升级、建设完善省级电能管理服务公共平台、加强低碳技术的产学研合作和产业技术创新战略联盟、发展城市绿色公共交通、强化节能降碳目标责任评价考核等五个方面提出对策建议,为江苏省加强节能减排,实现低碳发展提供借鉴。

Electricity, heat have been regarded as zero emissions in the end-use energy consumption＇ s CO2 emissions, but this is not conducive to energy savings and emission reduction in the end-use energy consumption sector. And it does not conform to the principle of ＂Common but Differentiated Responsibilities＂. Based on the fossil energy consumption that is required for the production of secondary energy （electricity, heat） and provincial secondary energy consumption , we measure CO2 emission factor of electricity and heat. From the two perspectives of production side and end-use angle, considering secondary Energy Calorific Value and Energy Equivalent Value, we calculate the end-use bear ratio of secondary energy＇ s CO2 emission, and then we can measure CO2 emissions of 19 end-use energy consumptions （including electricity, heat） from 2000 to 2012 in Jiangsu Province. Using LMDI 1 method, the CO2 emission variation is divided into 11 driving factors. Results show that ：①From 2000 to 2012, the end-use energy consumption＇ s CO2 emissions increase from 15 223.90 l0 kilo-tons to 46 396.20 10 kilo-tons in Jiangsu Province： CO2 emissions of production sector increase from 14 242.30 10 kilo-tons to 43 481. 15 10 kilo-tons, becoming the largest CO2 emissions sector by annual average 94. 52%, and CO2 emissions of living sector increase from 981.60 10 kilo-tons to 2 915.04 10 kilo-tons, growing at an average annual rate of 8.73%. ② From 2000 to 2012, scale of economies and per capita income are the biggest driving factor of CO2 emissions growth in production sector and living sector, at cumulative contribution of 147.09% and 77.51% respectively, showing that CO2 emissions in Jiangsu is closely related to the economic development and the improvement of people＇ s living standards. ③ From 2000 to 2012, the main drivers of the decrease of CO2 emissions in Jiangsu are the improvement of energy utilization efficiency of production departments and the results of industrial structure adjustment, at a cumulative contribution of -39.09% and -11.96%. ④The energy structure carbon intensity of power and heat has reduced CO2 emissions by 739.77 10 kilo-tons during 2000 and 2012, which has become a powerful driving factor for the future emission reduction in Jiangsu. In the end, countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to strengthen energy-saving emission reduction as well as to achieve Low-Carbon development for Jiangsu Province, promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, establishing and perfecting the provincial power management public service platform, strengthening the Low-Carbon Technology production-study-rsearch cooperation and industrial technology innovation strategic alliance, developing urban public transport, and strengthening target responsibility evaluation assessment of energy conservation and carbon reduction .