中国体育彩票销售综合指数的构建与初步应用

Construction and Preliminary Applying on the Sports Lottery Sales Composite Index in China

根据国内、外综合评价指数构建方法,遵照彩票产业相关理论,综合中国历年各省(市、自治区)彩票销售的规模、年增幅、人均销量、公益金、规模/生产总值和市场份额等6个分项维度指标,通过设置恰当的当量标准和权重,构建出中国彩票业销售综合指数,并通过了严格的稳健性检验。研究发现,随着中国彩票销售从欠缺转至适量、甚至过量的同时,其累退式不公平不断加剧,公益金筹集效率逐年下降。相对于中国台湾地区和美国,中国大陆彩票销售的合意性也不尽理想。虽然体育彩票销售方面落后于福利彩票,但在更高级的社会福利层面,要远优于后者。为提升中国彩票销售合意性,政府相关部门应重点关注开发指数,进行弱势群体健康投注教育,限制与培育部分省(市、自治区)以及创新彩票品种和玩法。为提高体育彩票竞争力,销售机构应建立风险防控措施;完善危机应对策略;避免过度依赖竞猜型彩票;调整乐透型彩票规则;推出数字型彩票新玩法等。

Based on the methods of constructing Composite Evaluation Index at home and abroard, and complying with related theories in lottery, summarizing the lottery sales data in 6 branch dimesions （ sales amount ; annual increase rate, density, public fund, penetration and shares） across provinces and years, this paper builds the Composite Sales Index in China Lottery Industry by Setting proper criterion and weights. A strict robust test on this index is run and passed. As we can see, while it is turning from deficient to appropriate and even excessive, the lottery sales in China become increasingly regressively unfair and the funding efficiency from lottery drops year by year. Compared to China Taiwan and USA, the lottery sales suitability in China Mainland is not so satisfactory. Sports lottery falls behind welfare lottery in sales but is superior to the latter in social welfare for higher levels. In order to improve the lot- tery sales suitability in China, related goverment sectors should pay more attention to the exploitation index; educate disadvantaged groups to bet healthily; restrict and cultivate some provinces and create new lottery types and playing methods. As for elevating the competitiveness of sports lottery, its issuer should build up measurements to prevent and control the risk;complete strategies to cope with crises;avoid heavily dependence on Totto; adjust the rules of Lotto and bring out new playing methods for Numbers.