中国化石能源消费碳排放环境影响的空间溢出效应

Spatial Spillover Effect of Impact of Carbon Emission from Consumption of Fossil Energy on Environment

在随机性环境影响评估模型的理论框架下,构建并推导了半参数空间动态面板数据模型,研究了中国30个省(自治区、直辖市)化石能源消费碳排放环境影响的空间溢出效应。研究结果如下:化石能源消费碳足迹较大的区块主要分布在中国北部地区和长三角地区,且局部区域的化石能源消费碳足迹呈减小趋势;化石能源消费碳排放的环境影响存在时间滞后效应和空间滞后效应,其中时间滞后效应为0.8850、空间滞后(溢出)效应为0.6517,两者的贡献差距达15.18%;东、中和西部地区的化石能源消费碳排放的环境影响存在较为明显的个体效应。

Under the theoretical framework of STIRPAT,this paper builds and deduces the semi-parametric spatial dynamic panel data model,and investigates the spatial spillover of the environment impact of carbon emission from fossil energy consumption in 30 Chinese provinces/municipality/autonomous regions.The mian results show as follows：the area with larger energy carbon footprint of fossil energy consumption is mainly located in the northern region and Yangtze River Delta regions in China,and in some regions the carbon footprint shows the trend of becoming smaller;there are both the time lag and spatial lag effects of the impacts of carbon emission from the consumption of fossil energy on environment,to be specific,the time lag effect is 0.8850,and the spatial lag effect（spillover）is 0.6517,and the contribution gap between them is15.18%;there are relative obvious individual effects of the impacts of carbon emission from fossil energy consumption on environment in the eastern,central and western regions of China.