浙江省碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系及驱动因素研究

Analysis on Decoupling and Influencing Factors between Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Zhejiang Province

运用IPCC参考方法、Tapio脱钩模型、协整分析和Granger因果检验,研究了浙江碳排放特征及其驱动因素。结果表明:碳排放量呈增长趋势,碳排放强度呈下降趋势,多数年份碳排放与经济增长之间呈"弱脱钩"状态;经济增长、外贸和人口增长对碳排放正向驱动,能源效率和城市化对碳排放负向驱动;经济增长、外贸、城市化和人口增长是引起碳排放增长的单向Granger原因,能源效率与碳排放互为Granger原因。

This paper studied the characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions of Zhejiang Province by using the IPCC reference approach and Tapio decoupling model, and empirically analyzed carbon emission factors by using Co-integration Analysis and Granger causality test also.The result showed that:carbon emission was increased, carbon intensity was declined, and there was a "weak decoupling relationship" between carbon emissions and economic growth in most years;from the viewpoint of causality, carbon emissions was caused in one-way by economic growth, trade openness, urbanization and population growth, but, energy efficiency and carbon emissions interacted as both cause and effect.