煤与瓦斯突出综合预测指标临界值的优化

Optimization of the critical value of coal and gas outburst comprehensive prediction index

为了提高煤与瓦斯突出预测的准确性、保障采掘工作面的安全、高效推进和降低防突工程成本,根据"三率"(预测突出率、突出预测准确率、不突出预测准确率)各自具有的合理区间属性和权重,以张集煤矿采掘工作面为例,采用区间数关联决策方法,得出综合预测指标F′的最优化区间为[370,380];根据加权灰靶决策方法,得出预测指标临界值排序为400、390、380等;取最优化区间和排序靠前的临界值的交集,得到煤与瓦斯突出综合预测指标F′的临界值为380,并开展现场应用。结果表明,考虑评价指标的区间属性,并取预测指标区间与排序靠前的临界值的交集作为煤与瓦斯突出预测综合指标F′的最优临界值方法是合理的。

In order to improve the accuracy of coal and gas outburst prediction,guarantee safe and efficient propulsion of mining face and reduce the cost of outburst prevention,by fully considering the interval attributes and weights of the three indicators（the prediction rate ＆accuracy rate of coal and gas outburst,and accuracy rate of no coal and gas outburst）,we use the method of multilevel incidence decision of multiattribute interval number to calculate the optimal interval of comprehensive prediction index F′of Zhangji coal mine,and its value is[370,380].According to the method of multi-weighted index gray target decision method,the top-ranking of F′is 400,390,380.The intersection of the optimized interval and the topranking of F′is 380.Case study results shows the method is reasonable.