城镇化、产业结构升级和城乡收入差距——基于PVAR模型的实证

Dynamic Interaction of Urbanization、Industrial Structure Upgrading and Income Gap——the Empirical Analysis Based on PVAR Model

选取我国1998—2013年的省际面板数据,对各地区的城镇化、产业结构升级及城乡收入差距的动态互动关系建立面板向量自回归模型.实证研究发现:城镇化和产业结构升级之间互为格兰杰因果关系,而城镇化与城乡收入差距之间以及产业结构升级和城乡收入差距之间只存在单向格兰杰因果关系;城镇化水平的提高虽然会促进产业结构的升级,却不利于城乡收入差距的缩小;产业结构升级则会抑制城镇化水平的提高;随着城乡居民收入差距的逐渐减小,产业结构升级水平逐渐提高.

The 1998—2013 years of inter-provincial panel data is selected,then panel vector autoregression model to analysis the relationship is built about urbanization of the region,upgrading the industrial structure and the interaction between urban and rural income gap. The results showed that,mutual Granger causality between urbanization and industrial structure upgrading,and between urbanization and urban income gap and income gap between urban and rural areas and upgrading of industrial structure only unidirectional Granger causality; urbanization in while promoting the upgrading of industrial structure will increase the income gap between urban and rural residents; upgrading the industrial structure will impede the progress of urbanization; upgrading the industrial structure decreases the income gap between urban and rural residents is higher.