我国货币政策操作转向及其通胀阈值

Inflation Threshold and Turn-point in Monetary Policy for China

1992年以来,我国央行多次调整货币政策基调,实施了稳健货币政策、从紧的货币政策及适度宽松的货币政策等等。为揭示这些货币政策基调的实质性内涵,尤其是刻画我国货币政策操作转向的内在规律,本文使用多区制门限模型研究我国的货币政策反应关系,考察货币政策规则及其对通胀变化依存特征。研究结果表明,相比简单线性或三区制门限回归模型,双区制门限回归模型可以较好地描述我国货币政策的真实动态过程,即当通胀率高于1.4%时,中央银行实施相对从紧的货币政策治理通胀或管理通胀预期;而当通胀率低于1.4%时,中央银行实施稳健的货币政策,适时适度进行货币政策操作。

Considering the central bank has implemented prudent, tight, moderately tight or moderately loose monetary policy in last decades, this paper develops multi- regime threshold regression models, which allows the interest rate to experience three regimes at most depending on the current inflation rate, to investigate the turning points and reaction functions in the con- duct of monetary policy by the central bank from 1992Q1. Empirical evidence shows significant asymmetry and nonlinearity in China＇s monetary policy reaction function, and includes that the conduct of monetary policy could be captured adequately by the two - regime threshold regression model. Once inflation rate is higher than 1.4 %, the central bank would implement tight monetary policy to curb inflation, and keep the stability and continuity of monetary policy to prevent large economic fluctuations; otherwise, it would focus on beth the inflation rate and real output, and implement prudent monetary policy appropriately in good time to maintain a relatively rapid economic growth.