基于气候模式与水文模型结合的渭河径流预测

Prediction of Weihe River runoff based on combination of climate model with hydrological model

为预测渭河流域未来时段的径流变化规律,提出了CanESM2气候模式下RCP4.5、RCP8.5两种情景与半分布式水文模型VIC相对接的研究方案。采用气候模式输出的降水、气温等资料作为VIC模型的输入数据,分析未来2020s、2030s、2040s、2050s四个时期渭河流域径流变化规律。计算结果表明:由于未来气温变化幅度较小,故影响水文模型预测值的主导因素为降水变化;两种情景下,未来径流与降水变化规律相同,整体上呈现减少趋势,在四个时期内呈现先减少后增加的趋势。

In order to forecast the runoff variation law in the Weihe River valley in the future time section,this paper suggests the research scheme of RCP4.5,RCP8.5scenarios of two kinds under CanESM2 climate model and the semi-distributed hydrological VIC model docking.The output rainfall and temperature data by the climate model are used as the input data for VIC model to analyze the runoff variation laws in the Weihe River valley in the future 4periods of 2020 s,2030s,2040 s,2050s.The calculation results indicate that owing to small variation margin in the future temperature,the dominant factor affecting the hydrological model forecast values will be the precipitation variation,and that in the case of two scenarios,the variation laws of future runoff and precipitation will be the same,where by indicating a decreasing trend as a whole and appearing to have a trend toward decreasing first and increasing afterwards in the 4periods.