影响电力系统运行可靠性的人为失误分析与建模

Analysis and Modeling of Human Errors in Power System Reliability Evaluation

人为失误是影响电力系统可靠运行的重要因素之一,但目前已有的电力系统可靠性评估方法往往忽略了人为因素的影响。文章重点针对该问题开展研究,将电力系统中的任务情景分成时间相关型、过程相关型、应急相关型3种,提出了3种情景下的人为可靠性分析方法,以量化发生人为失误的概率。对传统的元件停运模型进行改进,建立了耦合人为失误的元件可靠性模型。在算例分析中考虑了不同情景下影响人为可靠性的主要因素,仿真结果表明,所提方法能够完成人为操作失误概率的量化,并能定量表征人为失误对电力系统可靠性的影响。

Human error is one of the most important factors affecting power system operation reliability. However, human error is usually neglected in conventional power system reliability evaluation due to lack of proper human reliability analysis method and human error model. In allusion to this situation, this paper proposes 3 human reliability analysis methods to quantify human error in different task situations, such as time related, process related and emergency related. A modified reliability model is established incorporating 3 types of human errors. Results of case studies demonstrate that human error could be quantified with proper methods according to specific situation, and influence of human error on power system reliability could be evaluated with the proposed methods.