新疆水资源综合利用效果及发展变化分析

Utilization and the development of water resources in arid areas of Xinjiang

为分析新疆水资源利用效果,以水资源利用技术指标为依据,采用综合评价和柯布道格拉斯模型分析现状与未来15项投入因素对总用水量影响。结果表明：现状2011年水资源利用综合量级为3级水平,水与经济社会为不可持续状态;规划2015-2030年综合量级为2.54~2.30级水平,总体处于可持续状态。为水与经济社会发展评估提供参考。

In order to analyze the water resources use effect of Xinjiang, the water resources use technical speci- fication was took as the study object, the quality synthetic evaluation was used to analyze the influences of 15 in- put factors to the total water consumption at present situation and the future. The result indicated that in 2011 the water resources use synthesis magnitude was at 3 level, the water and the economic society were not at the sus- tainable condition. In planning years of 2015 -2030 comprehensive magnitude were at 2.54 - 2.30 levels, that is at the sustainable condition. The study provided the reference for the water and the economic society develop- ment evaluation.