碳交易机制对电力行业影响分析

Analysis of Impact of Carbon Trading on Power Industry

为实现控制碳排放的国内国际承诺,我国已在7个地区试点了碳交易。电力行业作为我国最大的碳排放部门,在现有碳交易试点和未来全国碳市场中,都是重要的市场参与主体。本文结合国内外碳排放权交易市场的发展情况以及我国电力行业参与国内碳排放权交易市场的最新动态,从发电侧和电网侧识别碳交易市场对我国电力行业的关键影响因素,其中发电侧因素包括发电类型,配额确定和分配方式,减排方式。以此建立发电企业购碳度电成本占平准化供电成本比例的评估模型,根据已公布的碳交易规则和发电厂工程设计参考指标,定量测算了广东、上海碳交易试点对三类典型新建火力发电厂的影响。初步研究表明,碳交易试点将不同程度地增加火力发电企业的购碳成本但在当前碳试点的基准设置和碳价水平下,碳交易对发电企业的影响比较小。电网企业主要排放包括六氟化硫排放和输配损失导致的碳排放,根据现有文献数据对二者进行了估算,认为输配损失导致的碳排放存在外部不可控风险。在此基础上,结合中国电力行业的发展趋势,提出电力行业参与国内碳交易市场的政策建议。

China has promised to the world to control carbon emissions and setup objectives. Currently, seven pilot areas have trialed carbon trading. Power industry is the biggest carbon emission source sector in China. It is also key participant in the carbon market now and in the future. This article has combined the latest development of foreign and domestic carbon markets where power industry plays an important part. Key impact factors of carbon trading on power industry are identified for both power generation and grid industry, i.e. type of power, allowance determination and allocation, carbon reduction methods. A carbon cost per kWh/LCOE model is formulated for impact assessment. According to published carbon trade rules and reference design indicators of power plants, calculation of such impact is performed for three types of new thermal plants located in Shanghai and Guangdong carbon trading pilot areas respectively. Result shows the impact is low for these plants on the level of current carbon price. For grid companies, SF6 emission and emissions due to transmission loss are estimated using reference data. It is considered emissions due to transmission loss is risky due to difficulty to control. Based on the above analysis and trend of power industry in China, main suggestions are given to power industry for participating in carbon trading.