基于概率影响图的空降地域选择风险评估研究

Research on Risk Evaluation of Airborne Area Selection Based on Probability Influence Diagram

针对传统方法对风险考虑不够的问题,提出了一种基于概率影响图的空降地域选择风险评估方法。通过详细分析影响空降地域选择的风险因素及其相互关系并结合历史数据和作战经验,建立了空降地域选择风险评估的概率影响图模型。通过风险量化和概率推理,最终得出了空降地域选择风险的概率评估,通过实例验证了模型的有效性。

The traditional method does not give enough consideration to decision-risk. To solve this problem,a risk assessment method based on probability influence diagram is presented. By analyzing the influence diagram model for risk factors and its correlations of airborne area selection,and combining past data and experiences,a risk evaluation model based on probability influence diagram for airborne area selection is built. Finally,the risk for airborne area selection is computed by quantizing risk and reasoning probability,and the model’s validity is proved by a case.