中国近50年降水量变化区划(1961—2010年)

Regionalization of the annual precipitation change in the last 50 years in China(1961-2010)

基于中国537个气象站点1961—2010年的年降水量数据,运用滑动概率分布模型、小波分析和Mann-Kendall检验法,结合中国地形特点,从降水量均值的变化、变率的变化、频率分布形式的变化、突变特征以及周期变化5个方面来分析中国降水量的变化特征和区域差异,构建具体的指标体系,对中国降水量变化进行区划。结果表明,中国降水量变化存在明显的区域差异,根据这些差异可以将中国划分为3个变率变化带、10个平均降水量变化区、35个周期变化亚区。

Based on the annual precipitation data of 537 weather stations during 1961-2010 in China,combined with the terrain features of China,this paper analyzed the characteristics and regional difference of the change in the average value,variability change,frequency distribution form,mutation time and periodic variation of precipitation through the application of the sliding probability distribution model,wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall test.The concrete index system was established for the precipitation change regionalization in China.The results show that there was obvious regional difference of precipitation changes in China.The scheme consists of 3 variability change zones,10 mean precipitation change regions and 35 cycle change sub-regions.