经济结构变动对中国碳排放影响——基于IO-SDA方法的分析

Effects of Economic Structure Change on Carbon Emission of China: Analysis Based on IO-SDA Model

应对气候变化的进程已经在全球范围内对社会经济发展方式的根本性转变提出了要求。改革开放以来,我国产业经济结构得到了一定的改变,与其他发达国家相比,产业经济结构自身还存在较大的优化空间。本文基于1992、1997、2002、2007、2010年的投入产出表,采用IO-SDA方法(Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis)将碳排放量的变化分解为能源结构效应、能源强度效应、增加值效应、Leontief逆矩阵效应、最终需求效应,从而得到经济结构历史变化对于CO2排放的作用。研究结果显示,我国能源消耗导致的排放增加主要是最终需求效应与Leontief逆矩阵效应;除2002-2007年,能源强度效应始终为负,且为促进CO2排放减少的主要因素;我国终端能源结构除了1997-2002年得到了优化,其他阶段却一直在朝着高碳化的方向发展。通过构建碳排放影响力系数和碳排放感应度系数对各个部门的评价结果显示,国民经济中的基础性行业大多是高耗能的行业,未来节能减排重点需要逐步降低第二产业在国民经济中的比重,但在具体部门层次上应制定有所区别的政策:煤炭开采和洗选业等部门应保持一定的比重,不可一味降低,可更多从技术进步方面制定节能政策;通用专用设备制造业等部门可以考虑从提高能源利用效率方面改进;非金属矿物制品业等部门可以在保证人们生产生活的基础上来尽可能地降低比重;食品制造及烟草加工业等第二产业部门及房地产业至公共管理和社会组织等第三产业中的服务业部门应大力提高其在经济结构中的比重。

Combating climate change required social economic development huge changes. Since the reform and opening-up policy, the economic structure of China has obtained certain changes; however, comparing with some developed countries, it still has further optimization space. Based on the input-output table of 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2010, using the IO-SDA （ Input-Output Structure Decomposition Analysis） method, this article decomposes the change of carbon emissions into energy structural effect, energy intensity effect, value added effect, Leontief inverse matrix effect and final demand effect, therefore developing the effect of the economic structure changes to the CO2 emission. The results show that China＇ s increasing emission caused by energy consumption is mainly due to the final demand effect and the Leontief reverse matrix effect. It also shows that except for 2002 - 2007, the energy intensity effect is always negative and is the main reason of the CO2 emission reduction. So it can be concluded that final energy mix has only been optimized during 1997 -2002, and in the other years, it＇s moving toward to higher carbonation. By constructing the influence coefficient and the reaction coefficient of carbon emission, and making relevant assessment, the results show that the basic industries of the national economy are energy intensive, the future energy conservation should focus on the reduction of the proportion of the secondary industry in the national economy, which is based on differentiated policy of different industries. For example, mining and washing of coal sector should keep certain share and couldn＇ t decrease all the time, more technology innovation energy saving policy should be paid attention. Manufacture of general purpose machinery sector could consider the energy saving by improving the energy efficiency. Manufacture of non-metal mineral products sector could decrease its share as far as possible to ensure primay requirements from production and consumption. Manufacture of food and process of tobacco sector and real estate dcvelopmeng, public management, social security and social organizations could increase the share in the total economy.