环境影响的IPAT模型再认识

Rethinking the Environmental Impact of the IPAT Model

伴随工业文明的发展,探究日益恶化环境问题的社会根源成为学术界激烈争论的议题,从人口规模与技术水平的单因素争论拓展到文化背景、政府类型和消费观念等多因素论的讨论,在横向上从宏观社会到微观个体层次的解释,最终形成经典的环境影响的IPAT模型,试图解释环境问题产生的复杂社会动力机制。本文通过国内外学者对IPAT模型的实证研究以及理论探讨梳理发现:模型中的因变量环境影响I以及自变量人口数量P、富裕程度A和技术水平T的内涵、完备性以及分析单位的适用性等方面备受争议。为了克服变量的局限,首先通过分解IPAT模型中T变量,进一步拓展模型中可能被忽略的对环境影响的多重因素;同时为了避免模型中不同因素对环境影响的同比例线性变化的局限性,将IPAT模型转化为非线性的STIRPAT随机模型,使各变量值随观察值的变化而变化;其次为了克服研究中忽视个体对环境影响差异性的不足,以"双重转换"理论为基础分析少数特权群体对环境造成不成比例的影响;最后面对分析单位以及分析情景的差异性与复杂性,基于"世界体系论"视角突破特定区域时空以国家间互动关系为分析单位对全球环境退化展开讨论。研究表明,IPAT模型的发展演变表明环境保护与经济发展关系逐渐从悲观的"零和"冲突走向协调发展的路径,有利于探索更加有效的举措应对全球复杂而严峻的环境问题,同时对新常态下中国推进生态文明建设具有重要的理论和实践意义。

With the development of industrial civilization, exploring the social origin of the environmental deterioration becomes a hot topic in academia, and relative discussion is extended from the single factor of population size and technology level to the multi factors of cultural background, governmental types and consumption concept, then to the lateral explanation of macro social structure and micro individual behavior, and finally it forms the classic IPAT model which aims to explain the social dynamics mechanism of environmental problems. After analyzing the data of empirical research and theoretical discussion about IPAT models, the author finds that there are some controversies about the dependent variable （I） and the connotation, completeness, applicability of analysis unit of the independent variables （P, A,T）. In order to overcome the limitations, firstly, further expand the multiple factors that may be neglected in the Model by decomposing the variable of T, and avoid the limitation of proportionality in the functional relationship between factors Priori which is affected by different factors on the environment in the model, the IPAT models is transferred into Nonlinear STIRPAT model, so that the value of each variable can change with the observed values. Secondly, the existing research ignores the environmental differences of individual impact. In order break through the limitation, this article analyses the influence of environmental disproportion caused by some privileged groups on the basis of the double diversion theory. Finally, facing with the diversity and complexity of analysis uriit and analysis context, and breaking through specific time and space, the author adopts the analysis unit of interactions between countries to discuss global environmental degradation on the basis of world system theory perspective. The development of the IPAT model indicates that the relationship between environmental protection and economic development is gradually from the pessimistic ＇ zero sum＇ conflict to the coordinated development, which has advantages to explore more effective measures to deal with the complex environmental problems and has important theoretical and practical significance for the construction of ecological civilization in China.