技术路线图方法探索与实践应用研究——基于文献计量和专利分析视角

The Research of Technology Roadmapping Methods:Based on the Perspective of Bibliometrics and Patent Analysis

技术路线图作为一种预测和描绘新兴技术发展路径的工具,已被广泛应用于企业、产业、国家的技术发展规划中,以减少创新和规划过程中的不确定性。然而,目前技术路线图的研究和制定常以定性方法为主,过分依赖专家经验。在剖析技术路线图研究机理的基础上,将文献计量和专利分析引入技术路线图应用中,以减少技术路线图对专家经验的依赖。构建基于文献计量、专利分析和技术路线图的新兴技术产业未来发展分析框架,并以染料敏化太阳能光伏技术产业为例进行了实证研究,验证了该分析框架的可行性和有效性。

Technology roadmapping is a flexible method to forecasting and describe the development path of emerging technology,which has been widely used within enterprises,industries and countries.However,current technology roadmapping is mainly displayed by experts＇ experience.Based on the principles of technology roadmapping method,this paper incorporates the bibliometrics and patent analysis with technology roadmapping method,and establishes an analysis framework for the future development of emerging technology-based industry.The dye-sensitized solar cells technologybased industry is selected as an empirical study.The empirical study confirms the validity and applicability of the construction framework for technology roadmapping.