基于双重不确定性的应急物流配送策略

Emergency Logistics Distribution Strategy Based on Double Uncertainty

针对应急物流配送过程中救灾信息具有多重不确定性特点,兼顾考虑"灰"与"鲁棒"等双重交叉不确定性因素的影响,构建应急物流配送多阶段多目标灰动态规划模型,并在此基础上给出鲁棒控制策略。灰动态规划目标函数中设计运输成本最优、运输时间最少以及用户满意度最大等优化目标,充分考虑"灰因素"对决策结果的影响,更适合完成突发事件下的应急救援物流任务,比静态环境下的一般规划模型更具有柔性。咱灰动态规划模型基础上给出鲁棒H∞策略,既能够抑制正态分布、均匀分布噪声等外部不确定输入扰动,同时又能够抑制成本参数、配送时滞等内部不确定性扰动,对于既定成本目标控制的平稳实现具有重要支撑作用。提出的基于灰动态规划的应急物流配送鲁棒控制策略,对于解决突发事件下的应急物流配送决策问题具有重要的应用价值与实际意义。

In this paper,we build a grey multi-stage and multi-objective dynamic programming model about emergency logistics aiming at emergency relief information with multiple uncertainty features,considering ＂grey uncertainty＂ and ＂ Robust uncertainty＂ factors based on which a robust control strategy is given.We design transport costs,transport time minimum and maximum user satisfaction optimization objective in grey dynamic programming objective function,fully consider the impact of the ＂grey factor＂ of the decision-making results,it is more suitable and more flexible for emergency rescue logistics tasks completed under emergency than general programming model under the static environment.Robust H∞strategy is given based on grey dynamic programming model,it is both capable of inhibiting the external uncertain input disturbances such as normal noise and uniform noise,and capable of inhibiting the internal distribution such as cost parameters and time-delay which plays an important supporting role in smoothing the realization of the cost targets controlling.We build the robust control strategy of emergency logistics distribution based on grey dynamic programming that there is an important application value and practical significance to resolve emergency logistics distribution decision problem under emergency.