碳约束下中国县域尺度农业全要素生产率比较研究

Spatial and temporal changes of total factor productivity in agriculture: A stochastic frontier analysis of China at county level, 1991-2011

基于2183个县级单元,利用SFA方法对1992-2011年碳约束下中国县域农业生态TFP及其分解项进行研究,并与不考虑碳排放的传统TFP进行比较。结果表明:第一,农业生态TFP年平均增长4.47%,低于传统TFP,但两者差距有缩小的趋势,2011年前者超过后者。第二,农业生态TFP贡献了中国农业总产值增长的54.9%,比传统TFP的份额低了3.6%,要素投入贡献为45.1%。第三,分解项上,前沿技术进步率是农业生态TFP的主要驱动因素,也是生态TFP与传统TFP差距缩小的动因。第四,空间分布上,生态TFP大于传统TFP的地区主要分布在胡焕庸线东南的地区;西部由于生态TFP和传统FTP都较低,呈现出"双重恶化"现象;除了嵊泗县以外,农业生态TE和TEC均低于传统TE和TEC,生态FTP也整体低于传统FTP。

Based on 2183 county- level administrative units of China from 1991 to 2011, this paper applies SFA method to estimate TFP and its decompositions under carbon constraints and their spatial-temporal changes. The main conclusions are： First, the ecological TFP grows at an annual rate of 4.47%, lower than the traditional TFP, but the gap is narrowing and the former exceeded the latter in 2011. Second, the contribution of ecological TFP to the gross growth of China＇s agricultural output value is 54.9%, 3.6% lower than the share of traditional TFP, while factor inputs＇ contribution is 45.1%. Third, FTP is the main driving factor of ecological TFP,and has narrowed the gap between ecological and traditional TFP. Fourth, places where ecological TFP are smaller than tradition TFP are mainly distributed to the east and south of the Hu Huanyong Line. Areas west of the line have low traditional FTP and ecological TFP,showing a double deterioration phenomenon. Ecological TE and TEC are less than traditional TE and TEC except for Shengsi, and ecological FTP is small than traditional FTP on the whole.