中国交通运输业碳排放的测算及影响因素

Calculation of the carbon emissions of Chinese transportation industry and the driving factors

采用IPCC关于碳排放的计算方法,测算了1980-2012年中国交通运输业的碳排放量,并运用脱钩模型和环境库兹涅茨曲线分析了碳排放量与交通运输业增加值的关系。结果显示:近30年来中国交通运输业的碳排放量呈现快速增长趋势,年均增长率为9.05%;交通运输业碳排放和产业增长呈增长联接状态,但脱钩指数呈增大趋势;环境库兹涅茨曲线为倒"U"型曲线。接着,采用回归模型分析交通运输业碳排放的影响因素,结果表明产业增长是导致碳排放量增加的主要因素,产业比重和从业人口增长对碳排放具有促进作用,能源效率是碳排放的主要抑制因素。最后,提出了交通运输业减少碳排放的建议,即促进交通运输业低碳技术开发,提高能源利用效率,适当控制交通建设投资规模,大力倡导低碳交通方式等。

Using Carbon Emissions Calculation of IPCC,we calculated carbon emissions of transportation industry in 1980- 2012,and analyzed the relationship between carbon emissions and transportation industry added value by decoupling model and the environmental Kuznets curve. Results revealed that the carbon emissions of Chinese transportation industry had rapidly increased with the average annual growth rate of 9. 05% in the recent30 years; it existed a connection state between transportation industry carbon emissions growth and industrial growth,however the decoupling index tended to increase; environmental Kuznets curve shows inversd ＂ U＂ type.Then,we analyzed the impact factors of the transportation industry carbon emissions by Regression Model. Results show that industry growth was a major factor for the increase of carbon emissions,the increases of industry proportions and working population were also the promoting factors,while energy efficiency was the main disincentive factor. Finally,some proposals were given for reducing the carbon emissions： promoting the development of transportation industry＇s low- carbon technologies,improving the energy efficiency,appropriately controlling the investment scale in transportation construction,and vigorously promoting low- carbon transportation patterns.