基于马尔科夫链-复杂网络事故传播的罐区储罐失效概率研究

Research on the Failure Probability of Storage Tank Based on Markov Chain–Complex Network Accident Spread

通过对国内外储罐失效概率研究方法的分析,本文引入复杂网络事故传播理论和马尔科夫链,建立基于马尔科夫链的复杂网络事故传播模型,以解决传统方法涉及较少的储罐之间的n-n相互作用问题。并进行实例分析,将该模型计算结果与传统方法进行对比,结果表明,该模型计算结果能为安全防范提供了更好的建议。

Through the analysis of research methods of storage tank failure probability at home and abroad, this paper introduces the theory of complex network accident spread and Markov chain, and builds a complex network accident spread model based on Markov chain to solve the problem of n-n interaction among different tanks traditional methods involve rarely. After the analysis of an example, comparing the result of this model with traditional methods, it shows that this model can offer better suggestions for safety precaution.