国家地缘脆弱性探索--缅甸案例及对中国地缘战略启示

National geopolitical vulnerability:A Myanmar case and implications for China's geopolitical policy

当今国际地缘政治经济格局正处于剧烈变动中,并对缅甸地缘环境的复杂性及地缘脆弱性产生深刻影响。缅甸所在的大湄公河次区域日益成为世界重要地缘政治力量博弈前沿和焦点。系统研究缅甸国家地缘脆弱性,对于中国西部大开发、"一带一路"及周边地缘环境建设具有重要战略意义。本文基于地缘政治及人地关系地域系统等学科理论,规范分析与实证分析相结合,从暴露性、敏感性和适应性等方面构建了国家地缘脆弱性研究框架,系统探索了缅甸典型的国家地缘脆弱性特征。资源环境禀赋、内部地域结构等引致的经济政治体系、社会文化传承等方面是缅甸脆弱性的本底特征,而缅甸与中国的地缘关系及决策则从根本上影响其地缘战略位态。缅甸地缘政治脆弱性及其与中国的相互依赖使之成为西方"U型封堵大陆战略"的薄弱点和今后角逐的着力点,也是中国解围破局重要的地缘战略出口。近期中国应通过"一带一路"孟中印缅经济走廊建设,大力加强中缅之间政治、经济、文化等各方面友好关系。

At present international geopolitical pattern is drastically changing, which may have a profound influence on the complexity of Myanmar＇s geopolitical context and vulnerability. Myanmar and the Greater Mekong Sub- region are becoming the world＇s major forefront and focus of geopolitical power game.Consequently, research on Myanmar geopolitical vulnerability would have great theoretical and practical significance for the development of western China and the＂Belt and Road＂initiative, as well as China＇s surrounding geopolitical environment. National geopolitical vulnerability is a geopolitical concept, especially related with traditional implication of＂small country.＂Based on theories and methodologies of geopolitics and human- environment system research, this study defines national geopolitical vulnerability with regard to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability, combining normative analysis with empirical study, and then systematically explores the structural effects and typical characteristics of national geopolitical vulnerability of Myanmar. With regard to internal vulnerability（sensitivity and adaptability）, Myanmar has a vulnerable geopolitical location with the narrow shaped territory surrounded by multi- national powers, traditional agriculture-based economy and widespread poverty conditions, complex regional structure with multi-ethnic and multi-cultural conflicts, and long-term instability of government system. All these geopolitical factors and their succession mechanism determine its national geopolitical vulnerability. Significantly, China- Myanmar geopolitical relations fundamentally affect the geostrategic position of Myanmar. Myanmar＇s geopolitical vulnerability and the corresponding dependence on China make it a weak point of the Western U- shaped besieging strategy and future critical point of the power competition, also an important geostrategic opening to China for breaking the geopolitical siege. It would be indispensable to continue to strengthen interdependence between China and Myanmar, and to maintain sound friendly bilateral relations. Myanmar is being faced with parliamentary election changes at present. Its political orientation will determine the future national development process and the corresponding geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia, South Asia, and even the Asia- Pacific region for decades.