金融杠杆、经济增长与金融稳定

Financial Leverage,Economic Growth,and Financial Stability

本文基于91个国家1983—2012年的面板数据，采用系统GMM估计方法和二元面板离散选择模型对金融杠杆、经济增长与金融稳定之间的关系进行了实证分析。实证结果表明：（1）去杠杆化对经济增长具有显著的负效应，同时，伴随着去杠杆化进程，金融危机的发生概率会明显增加；（2）金融杠杆波动与经济增长和金融稳定均显著负相关，表明金融杠杆波动程度的加大不仅会危害经济增长，同时还会对金融体系的稳定性产生负面影响。上述结论对一国的经济增长与金融稳定具有比较确切的政策启示。首先，应考虑从防患未然的角度，前瞻性地加强金融杠杆的宏观管理，避免整个金融体系出现过度杠杆化的倾向。其次，在危机后“被动去杠杆化”的过程中，应尽可能地采取循序渐近的策略，充分考虑政策实施过程中应有的平滑操作，最大限度地避免金融杠杆急速下降所导致的经济衰退和金融不稳定。

Based on panel data from 91 countries over the year of 1983 to 2012, this paper analyzes the effects of financial deleveraging and financial leverage volatility on economic growth and financial stability by using system GMM estimation. The empirical analysis yields the following results ： （ 1 ） there is a robust negative relationship between financial deleveraging and economic growth and the deleveraging process is generally associated with higher probability of financial crisis; （2） the volatility of financial leverage has a negative impact on both economic growth and financial stability. These conclusions have explicit policy implications for economic growth and financial stability. First, to prevent the excessive leverage of the financial system, preemptive measures should be taken to strengthen the macroeconomic management of financial leverage. Second, in the passive deleveraging process of the post - crisis period, to escape economic recession and financial instability caused by fast financial deleveraging, the policy authority should adopt progressive strategies and fully consider the smoothing operation of policy implementation.