基于非平衡产量模型的海洋渔业资源承载力评估——以浙江省为例

The assessment of carrying capacity of marine fishery resources based on the non-equilibrium production model-A case study in Zhejiang province

本文搜集整理相关统计年鉴中1998～2013年浙江省的海洋捕捞产量和海洋捕捞机动渔船基本情况的数据,利用非平衡产量模型结合逻辑斯蒂模型计算出最大持续产量（Maximum Sustainable Yield,MSY）,然后利用最大持续产量构建了海洋渔业资源承载力评价模型,对1998～2013年浙江省海洋渔业资源承载力状况进行了评估。评估结果显示：在1998～2013年,仅2007年和2008年的浙江省海洋渔业资源承载力状况是可载的,占研究年份的13%;2009年的浙江省海洋渔业资源承载力状况是临界超载的,占研究年份的6%;其余年份的浙江省海洋渔业资源承载力状况均处于超载状态,占研究年份的81%之多,过度捕捞现象严重。本文应用非平衡产量模型计算最大持续产量,首次利用统计学方法构建了海洋渔业资源承载力评价模型,对海洋渔业资源承载力状况进行评估,旨在为今后开展浙江省乃至全国海洋渔业资源承载力,甚至是海洋资源环境承载力的研究提供技术支撑。

In this paper,in order to evaluate the carrying capacity of marine fishery resources（ CCMFR） in Zhejiang province. The non-equilibrium output model and logistic model were used to calculate the Maximum Sustainable Yield（ MSY） that was employed to build the assessment model of carrying capacity of marine fishery resources. It will provide a technical support for the study of carrying capacity of carrying capacity of marine resources. We collected marine fishery production data and numbers of marine fishery motor boats from 1998 to 2013 to validate these models.The results show that CCMFR was overloaded during 1998 ～ 2013 except in 2007 and 2008,and it is really closed to overloaded only in 2009. The non-available year of CCMFR were up to 81%,however,the marine fishery resources were sustainably utilized just in two years that occupied 13%. The phenomenon of overfishing was very serious in thelast ten years in Zhejiang province.