我国超大城市碳排放与经济增长关系的实证研究

The Empirical Study on the Relationship between Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in Megacity Behemoths

城市经济发展离不开能源消费,而能源消费直接导致大量的碳排放,深入研究碳排放与经济增长之间关系对超大城市实施节能减排、发展低碳经济具有重要意义。本文分别选取了上海市、北京市、天津市和重庆市1995-2014年碳排放和经济增长的相关数据,对两者的脱钩关系和格兰杰因果关系进行实证研究,得出长期内实施碳减排政策不会阻碍超大城市经济增长的结论。因此,超大城市应该积极推动低碳城市建设,不断推动产业结构升级,改善能源消费结构,积极实施节能减排政策和倡导低碳生活。

The development of city economy depends on huge exhaustion of energy,but it can directly lead to the increase of carbon emissions. The empirical study on the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth is of great significance for megacity behemoths to implement energy conservation and emissions reduction,development of low carbon economy. This paper selects the Shanghai-Beijing-Tianjin-Chongqing data on carbon emissions and economic growth from 1995 to 2014,to study their decoupling relations and granger causality. It is concluded that implementation of carbon reduction policy will not hinder economic growth of the megacity behemoths in the long term. Therefore,megacity behemoths should actively promote low-carbon urban construction,constantly promote the upgrading of industrial structure,improve energy consumption structure,active implementation of energy conservation and emissions reduction policy and advocate low carbon life.