国外主要智库对英国退欧影响的分析

Influence of Brexit on the United Kingdom:Views of World Leading Think Tanks

英国退出欧盟是英国政治和欧洲一体化发展的重要转折点,其将对英国、欧盟乃至世界产生持久而深远的影响,但毫无疑问英国将是这种影响最主要的承受者。国外主要智库分析认为退欧对英国的影响总体是消极和负面的。退欧不仅将全面冲击英国的经济和社会福利,而且还将给英国国内政治发展增添更多的不确定性。此外,英国应对安全挑战的能力、外交影响力和国际地位都将因退欧而相对下降。英国退欧是一个过程,而非一个事件,退欧对英国的影响还将取决于英国退欧的方式、英国退欧谈判的进展以及最终的英欧关系安排等因素。有鉴于此,退欧对英国的具体影响还有待进一步观察。

Brexit is an important turning point in UK politics and the process of European Integration,which will exert enduring and profound influence on the UK,European Union and the world.However,the UK will undoubtedly be the major bearer of such impact.From the views of world leading think tanks,Brexit will negatively affect economic development and social welfare of the United Kingdom,and also increase the uncertainty of UK′s domestic politics.In addition,it will reduce UK′s capability in dealing with security threat,its diplomatic influence and international position.Since Brexit is a process,not an event,its final influence on the UK will be different in accordance with factors such as forms of Brexit,the progress of Brexit negotiation and final arrangement of relations between the UK and the European Union.Therefore,the influence of Brexit on the UK still needs further observation.