商品房价格对城镇化的影响实证分析

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Commercial Housing Price on Urbanization

房地产业是基础性产业,城镇化是国家整体发展程度指标,研究二者至关重要。本文对中国31个省(市)面板数据,通过计量模型研究了东部、中部、西部的商品房价格对城镇化的影响。结果发现:城镇化率与商品房价格呈正向影响,东部地区的关系显著,城镇化提高1%,商品房价格上涨0.44%,概率保障高达99%,中部和西部并没有表现出显著的正向影响。对此政府应加强东部住房补贴,适度放开东部城市户籍壁垒,支持东部保障房建设工程,重点要通过投资加快中西部城市发展,以缩小地区经济差距。

the real estate industry is the basic industry, ur- banization is the country＇s overall level of development indi- cators,the study of the two is very important.The author studies the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China, and studies the influence of the price of commercial housing in the middle and west of China by econometric model.The results showed that： urbanization rate and commercial hous- ing prices into a positive impact significant relationship be- tween the eastern region, the urbanization increased by 1%, the price of commercial housing rose 0.44%,Probability guar- antee is as high as 99%, and the central and western region does not show a significant positive effect.This government should strengthen the eastern housing subsidies, moderate liberalization of the eastern city of residence barrierslshould support the eastern, part of the protection of housing con- struction projects, focusing on investment to accelerate the development of the central and western cities in order to nar- row the regional economic gap.