财政扩张背景下我国货币政策与宏观审慎政策协同研究

Coordination of China's Monetary Policy and Macro-prudential Policy in the Context of the Fiscal Expansion

本文在DSGE框架下对以财政政策、货币政策为代表的宏观经济政策和宏观审慎政策之间的相互关系进行了分析。研究显示,宏观审慎政策无法配合货币政策实现通胀、产出和信贷的稳定,只能采用财政政策应对经济衰退;在财政扩张背景下,货币政策与宏观审慎政策非合作模式会带来更好的政策效果,两个政策并不应该局限于简单的统筹协作关系,而是应该在制定政策时考虑对方的政策行为。宏观审慎政策会影响财政政策有效性,但能够增加财政政策的可持续性并降低由于财政政策不连续所造成的经济波动。在构建中国宏观审慎政策框架时,除了考虑与货币政策的协调关系外,还应该让财政当局参与到宏观审慎政策的制定中来。

In this paper,we construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to analyze the relationship between the macro-prudential policy and macroeconomic policies which represented by fiscal and monetary policy. We find that monetary and macro-prudential policy cannot achieve the target of inflation,output and credit stabilization. The government can only use the fiscal policy to withstand the recession. With the fiscal expansion,there is a better result if monetary and macro-prudential policy in a noncooperation way. Conducting monetary and macro-prudential policy in an integrated way may be inappropriate. Monetary should be conducted taking the conduct of macro-prudential policy into account,and vice-versa. The macroprudential policy affects the effectiveness of fiscal policy,but it will increase the sustainability of fiscal policy and reduce the economic fluctuation caused by the discontinuities of fiscal policy.When we build China′s macro-prudential policy framework,it is necessary to consider the coordination with monetary and marco-prudential policy,and some involvement of fiscal authorities in macro-prudential is nonetheless desirable.