2010-2014年广州市气象因子与流感发病关联的时间序列研究

Correlation between meteorological factors and influenza incidence during 2010-2014 in Guangzhou of China

目的研究气象因子与流行性感冒的相关性,为流感发病的预警预测提供依据。方法利用2010-2014年广州市全人群每日流感发病人数的数据和同期的气温、相对湿度和气压、风速等主要气象指标资料,运用相关分析和分布滞后非线性模型分析的方法,分析气象因子与广州市流感发病的相关性。结果广州市2010-2014年共报告流感确诊病例27 171例,发病高峰集中在夏季;研究其日平均、最高和日最低气温中位数分为23.1℃、27.0℃、20.0℃,日温差中位数为7.1℃,日平均相对湿度中位数为79.0%,日平均日照时长中位数为4.2h,日平均气压中位数为1 005.3hPa,24h降雨量中位数为0mm,日降雨量最大值为3 270mm;相关分析结果显示,气温（日最高、日平均、日最低气温、温差）、日平均相对湿度、降雨量与流感发病呈正相关（r=0.095、0.094、0.088、0.073、0.159、0.099,均P〈0.01）,日照时长、气压与流感发病数之间呈负相关（r=-0.061、-0.058,均P〈0.05）。分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）拟合结果显示当气温为6℃,滞后为30d,RR值最大为1.100（95%CI：1.052～1.149）;当气压为1 024hPa,滞后为0d,RR值最大为1.090（95%CI：1.018～1.167）;当降雨量为3 200mm,滞后为10d,RR值最大为1.092（95%CI：1.053～1.132）。结论低温、温差、相对湿度、气压、降雨量等气象因子与广州市流感发病相关,这些因素可以考虑纳入流感预警预测体系。

Objective To explore the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of influenza. Methods Based on the data of daily reported influenza cases and the meteorological data including temperature,relative humidity,atmospheric pressure and wind velocity in Guangzhou during 2010-2014,the relationship between meteorological factors and influenza incidence was analyzed using a distributed lag non-linear time series model（DLNM）. Results There were a total of 27 171 influenza cases reported in during 2010-2014 in Guangzhou,China.The medians of daily average maximum,mean,minimum temperature and range of temperature were 23.1℃,27.0℃,20.0℃ and 7.1℃,respectively.The medians of average relative humidity,average sunshine hours,average atmospheric,24 hand maximum rainfall were 79.0%,4.2h,1 005.3hPa,0mm and 3 270 mm,respectively.Correlation analysis showed that temperature（daily average maximum,mean,minimum and the range）,relative humidity and rainfall were positively associated with the incidence of influenza（r=0.095,0.094,0.088,0.073,0.159 and 0.099,respectively,P〈0.01）,whereas atmospheric pressure and average sunshine hours were inversely associated with it（r=-0.061,-0.058,respectively,P〈0.05）.The results of DLNM showed that the highest risk was when daily mean temperature was 6 ℃ onlag 30 day at the relative risk（RR）ratio 1.100（95% CI：1.052-1.149）;when average atmospheric was 1 024 hPa on lag 0 day wth RRat 1.090（95%CI：1.018-1.167）;the RR was 1.092（95%CI：1.053-1.132）when average rainfall was 3 200 mm on lag 10 day. Conclusions The mean temperature,range of temperature,relative humidity,average atmospheric,and rainfall might be related with the incidence of influenza in Guangzhou of China and with a certain lag.The weather in Guangzhou is changeable with large temperature difference,much rain and easy to cause the outbreak of the influenza during spring and summer.