澳大利亚大选与大国关系

Australian Election and Its Relations with the Big Powers

2016年7月,澳大利亚举行了大选,执政党联盟党勉强胜选。新政府未来外交走向将取决于如何处理与相关大国的关系。澳中关系将会保持稳定,澳经济调整受益于澳中自贸区。同时,地区合作与政治独立是澳的诉求。南海问题上,澳持西方价值观立场,又将尽量采取务实政策,以平衡大国关系,维护地区的稳定;澳美关系将会进一步强化,因为澳认为美国的强大及其主导的现行制度,以及未来印太地区的治理,澳都要依靠美国。以安全领域合作为重点的澳美关系将会扩大内涵,调整战略,强化合作;澳日关系基础牢固,除了同为美国盟国和西方国家,日本是澳的长期重要伙伴。在美国实力相对下降的情况下,澳日合作将不断密切。但是澳新政府将与日适当保持距离。

In July,2016, the Australian ruling party, the Coalition, won the election with the minimum seats, 76 for the House of Representatives. The new government？s foreign relations will depend upon its re？lations with the big powers. The Sino-Australia relations will maintain stability since Australian domestic readjustment has been beneficial from the Sino-Australia FTA and Australia has been engaging the regional cooperation independently. But Australia has to be balance its policy between the Western ideology and pragmatics for power relations and stability. Australia-US relations will be strengthened because Australia relies on US superiority, the global system under the US and the Indo-Pacific management. The bilateral relations will broaden with priority to security in terms of strategic coordination and cooperation. Australia-Japan relations has a solid base for the common alliance with the US and the developed world. As a long time partner, Australia should have a stronger relationship with Japan when the US is in decline, but Aus？tralia may carefully keep a distance from Japan for the domestic, political, and power relations？ reasons. Australia-India relations has consistently increased since Australian geo-political position between the Pa？cific and the Indian Ocean has strengthened, as well as India engaging with East Asia. The two sides have a space and momentum for better relations. G20 is the most important platform for an Australian international role in addition to its relations with the big powers. Australia has been maintaining its impact on the G20 since it hosted the G20 in 2014.