中国个人所得税逆向调节收入分配的PVAR分析

The PVAR Model Analysis on the Contrary Adjustment Effect of China's Personal Income Tax on Income Distribution

从税基、税率和税收征管三个角度出发,分析了制约我国个人所得税收入调节能力的现实因素,并利用PVAR模型检验了2001-2012年个人所得税的收入调节效应。研究结果表明:从总收入来看,个人所得税会从整体上扩大总收入差距、城市内部收入差距和城乡之间收入差距,但无法显著影响农村内部收入差距;从分项收入来看,工薪类个税收入会扩大总收入差距、城乡之间收入差距、城市内部收入差距和农村内部收入差距,经营类个税收入会扩大城市内部收入差距,但能缩小城乡之间收入差距,其他个税收入会扩大总收入差距、城乡之间收入差距,但能缩小农村内部收入差距;从方差分解的贡献率来看,个人所得税对城市内部收入差距的影响最为明显,对城乡之间收入差距的影响程度次之,对农村内部收入差距的影响程度最低。总体来看,个人所得税对收入差距的扩大作用始终占据主导地位,逆向调节收入分配的作用机制非常明显。

Starting from the three aspects of the tax base, tax rate and tax collection, the paper analyzes the restriction factors of China＇s personal income tax revenue adjustment ability, and uses the PVAR model to test the 2001-2012 of personal income tax adjustment effect. The results show that, according to the total income, personal income tax will enlarge the total income gap, the income gap within the city and the income gap between the urban and rural areas, but could not significantly influence the rural income gap;according to the breakdown of income, personal income tax on wage income will increase the total income gap, income gap between urban and rural areas, the income gap within the city and rural income gap, business tax revenue will expand the income gap within the city, but can narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas, and other tax revenue will enlarge the total income gap, the income gap between urban and rural areas, but can reduce the income gap in rural areas; from the point of the variance decomposition of the contribution rate, the contrary adjustment effect of PIT on income distribution is very obvious, the influence degree of PIT on the income gap between urban and rural areas is second, that of on the rural income gap is less. The role of individual income tax on the expansion of the income gap has always been dominant, and the role of reverse regulation of income distribution is very obvious.