我国农业补贴政策的影响效应分析与实证检验

An Analysis and Empirical Test on the Effect of Agricultural Subsidies in China

梳理和分析我国现行的农业补贴政策,并从理论上分析农业补贴政策对粮食产量和农民收入增长的影响机制。在此基础上,将我国18个省份(12个粮食主产区、6个非粮食主产区)分成三个地区组,建立六个动态面板数据模型,研究农业补贴对粮食生产和农民收入的影响效应。理论分析和实证研究表明:1)农业补贴通过促进农业技术进步、减少生产成本、提高种粮积极性等途径提高了粮食产量。在粮食主产区和非粮食主产区,农业补贴对粮食产量的提高均有显著的促进作用,非粮食主产区的边际效应略强。2)农业补贴主要通过促进农业产出增长、增加农民转移性收入和推动农村劳动力转移等途径提高农民收入。三个地区组农业四项补贴的增收效应均是显著的,低产值的粮食主产区和非粮食主产区边际效应较大。

This paper shows the current agricultural subsidy system and analyzes the effect of agricultural subsidy policy on food production and farmers' income growth,Then in order to study the effect of subsidies on agricultural output and farmers income and the area difference of the effect,We choose 18 provinces divided into three groups( including twelve major grain producing areas and six non-major grain producing areas) and constructs six dynamic panels of data models. We obtains the following conclusions: 1) Agricultural subsidies can increase food production by promoting agricultural technology progress and reducing production cost and stimulating the farmers' enthusiasm. The agricultural subsidies have apparent positive effect on the grain yield in the main grain producing areas and non main producing areas,and the marginal effect is slightly stronger in the non major grain producing areas. 2) Agricultural subsidies can increase the farmers ' income mainly through promoting the growth of agricultural output,increasing farmers' transfer income and pushing rural surplus labor transfer. The effects are significant and the marginal effect is larger in the lowoutput regions of major grain producing areas and in the non main grain producing areas.