大佛寺矿沉陷区变形预计及危险性分区

Deformation Prediction and Risk Division of the Subsidence Area of Dafosi Mine

以大佛寺煤矿30201工作面为例,首先分析了矿区地形地貌、工程地质条件及开采情况,结合矿区实际调查结果总结出地层岩性、地形坡度、断层构造、降雨作用、人类工程活动等5类矿山开采沉陷影响因子,并对各因子的影响能力进行了定量化分级;然后利用逻辑回归分析软件SPSS对矿区样本数据进行反演,构建了矿山开采沉陷危险性系数计算模型;最后结合Arc GIS软件构建了物元模型,对矿区沉陷区变形进行了预计,在此基础上以5个开采沉陷影响因子为变量,以10 m×10 m正方形网格为最小评价单元,分别得出各影响因子危险性分布情况作为基础图件,结合概率分析法计算出各模型的关联度与重要性程度,将矿区开采沉陷危险区划分为高危区、中危区、低危区和极低区4类。研究表明:大佛寺煤矿30201工作面地表沉陷范围由北部向东南部倾斜,沉陷预计值为300~650 mm,预计误差为1.7%~7.8%,表明该矿区开采沉陷预计及危险性分区结果基本符合矿区地表沉陷变形规律,对于该矿区安全开采及沉陷区治理有一定的参考价值。

In order to analyze the process and mechanism of mining subsidence,taking the 30201 working face of Dafosi coal mine as the study example, firstly, the topography and geomorphology, engineering geological conditions and mining condi- tions of the mining area are analyzed in detail, combing with actual geological investigation results of the mining area, the for- mation lithology, topographic slope, fault strueture, rainfall effect and human engineering activities are regarded as the five in- fluence factors of mining subsidence, and the quantitative classification of the five influence factors of the mining area is con- ducted;secondly,the sample data of the mining area is conducted inversion operation by using the logistic regression analysis software SPSS, the risk coefficient calculation model of mining subsidence is conducted;finally, combing with the ArcGIS soft- ware, the matter-element model of the mining area is established to predict the mining subsidence of the mining area, the above five influence factors of mining subsidence are regarded as five variables ,taking the square grid （10 m×10 m） as the minimum evaluation unite, the risk distribution maps of each influence factors are taken as the basic datum, the correlation degree and importance degree of each models are calculated by using probability analysis method, the mining subsidence risk region of the mining area is divided into four types, they are high risk area, moderate risk area,low risk area and ultra-low risk area. The re- search results show that the surface mining subsidence scope is inclined from the north to the southeast of the mining area, the mining subsidence prediction value of the mining area is 300 - 650 mm, the prediction error of the matter-element model estab- lished in this paper is 1.7% -7.8%, it is indicated that the mining subsidence prediction and risk division results of the min- ing area is basically consistence to the surface mining subsidence deformation regularity of the mining area. The above analysis results of the paper can provide some reference for the safety mining and subsidence area treatment of the mining area.