北京市服务贸易竞争力指数比较及影响因素的实证研究

The Empirical Research on the Competitiveness Index Comparison of Services Trade in Beijingand Its Influencing Factors

北京市服务贸易近年来得到突飞猛进的发展,在中国经济增长趋势放缓以及全球经济持续低迷的背景下呈现出较强的发展潜力,伴随着数量的快速增长比较考察北京市服务贸易竞争力及其影响因素具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章运用最新统计数据在对北京市服务贸易总量和结构进行分析的基础上,构建基于TC、RCA、CA和STO的指标分析体系,对京津沪渝4市服务贸易竞争力进行比较评价并运用灰色关联分析法对影响北京市服务贸易竞争力的因素进行了实证检验,竞争力指数比较结果表明北京市除STO指数低于上海市外,其余指数均高于津沪渝3市,实证结果表明第三产业占国内生产总值比重和服务贸易开放度与北京市服务贸易竞争力关系较为密切。

The service trade hasrapidlydevelopedin recent years in Beijing.Evenunder the background of global economic downturn, it shows a strong development potential. With the rapid development, it has important theoretical and realistic significance tocompare Beijing＇s service trade competitiveness and its influencing factors. In this paper, with the latest statistical data, we conduct the basicanalysis of the amount and structure of the service tradein Beijing、 Tianjin、Shanghai and Chongqing, and build the index analysis system based on TC、RCA、 CA and STOto evaluating the comparativecompetitiveness, and use the gray correlation analysis method to test the influence factors to Beijing＇s service trade. Competitiveness index comparison results show that,except forthe STO index which Beijing is lower than Shanghai, the rest of the indexes, Beijingare higher than that of other three cities.The empirical results also show that the proportion of the tertiary industry accounted for GDP and the service trade openness is closely related to Beijing＇s service trade competitiveness.