国际产能合作与重塑中国经济地理

Cooperation on International Production Capacity and the Reshaping of China's Economic Geography

当前中国经济正面临化解产能过剩及破解"胡焕庸线悖论"双重难题,构建资本跨区域流动两国三区域模型,对重塑中国经济地理格局下"一带一路"倡议及国际产能合作战略进行理论解析,结果发现:产业布局向"胡焕庸线"右侧过度倾斜,加剧了个人经济理性与社会集体理性的不匹配,弱化了区域一体化的政策效果;而且中国产业布局在集聚程度和集聚效益之间呈现钟状曲线特征,客观上要求由Krugman的"从分散到集聚"范式向Helpman的"从集聚到分散"范式转换。为此,重塑中国经济地理需要国际产能合作和负面清单管理双管齐下,实现资本流动的溢出效应与资本积累的增长效应在空间上的功能互补。通过再造以我为主的国际生产体系,强化中国在"一带一路"价值链中的龙头地位。

Since the Chinese economy is currently facing the twofold problem of dealing with excessive production capacity and cracking the Heihe-Tengchong Line paradox,China has set up a model of the transregional flow of capital among two countries and three regions to carry out a theoretical analysis of the reshaped'Belt and Road 'initiative given China's economic geography and its strategy of international cooperation in production capacity.The findings indicate that industry distribution is skewed toward the right of the Heihe-Tengchong Line,worsening the mismatch between individual economic rationality and the collective rationality of society and weakening the effect of policies of regional integration.Moreover,China's industry distribution is characterized by a bell-shaped curve between the extent and the benefits of agglomeration.Objectively,this necessitates a shift from Krugman's model of'from dispersion to agglomeration' to Helpman's model of'from agglomeration to dispersion. 'For this reason,the reshaping of China's economic geography requires a two-pronged approach involving cooperation in international production capacity and the management of negative lists plus realization of spatial functional complementation between the spillover effect of capital flows and the growth effect of capital accumulation.The rebuilding of an international production system with China as the main force will strengthen China's leading position in the'Belt and Road' value chain.