基于Maxent模型的党参全球潜在分布区预测

Prediction for the potential distribution area of Codonopsis pilosula at global scale based on Maxent model

基于党参全球129个分布点和37个生态因子,利用最大熵模型(Maxent)与地理信息系统(GIS)预测党参的全球生态适宜区.结果表明:党参的全球生态适宜区总面积达到884.79×10~4km^2,主要分布在北半球的东亚地区,其中以中国最为集中.中国的党参生态适宜区中,适宜性指数较高的区域主要分布在山西、陕西、四川、甘肃东南地区、西藏东部、云南东南地区、山东东北地区等,中国是党参的最佳栽培区.影响党参地理分布的生态因子主要是气候因子,其中,温度因子起主导作用,降水因子次之;然后依次是地形与土壤因子.年均温和降水的季节性、最冷季平均温、最干季降水量对其影响最大.

Maximum entropy model （Maxent） and geographic information system （GIS） were used to predict the global ecological suitable region of Codonopsis pilosula based on 129 distribution data and 37 ecological factors. The results showed that the total area of ecological suitable region was about 884.79×10^4 km2, mainly in East Asia of the Northern Hemisphere, especially concentrated in China. The ecological suitable region in China with high suitable index was mainly in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, southeast of Gansu, east of Tibet, southeast of Yunnan, and the northeast of Shandong. It was indicated that China had the most suitable region for C. pilosula cultivation. The main influence factors for the geographical distribution of C. pilosula were climate factors, and the first factor was temperature, the next one was precipitation, and the topography factors and soil factors followed. Mean annual temperature, precipitation seasonality, mean temperature of coldest quarter and precipitation of driest quarter were the most important factors for the distribution of C. pilosula.