《2017新媒体联盟中国高等教育技术展望:地平线项目区域报告》解读与启示

Interpretation and Implications of 2017 NMC Technology Outlook of Higher Education in China:A Horizon Project Regional Report

美国新媒体联盟(NMC)的《地平线报告》系列丛书,十多年来致力于预测和描述未来五年全球范围内会对教育产生重大影响的新兴技术。然而,这份报告难以针对中国教育的具体情况提出精准的指导性建议。为增进中国高等教育的管理者和从业者对教育技术应用态势的把握,促进中国高校"双一流"建设的进程,北京师范大学智慧学习研究院与美国新媒体联盟联合发布了第一个针对中国高等教育新兴技术应用状况的地平线报告,即《2017新媒体联盟中国高等教育技术展望:地平线项目区域报告》(以下简称"中国高教版《地平线报告》")。该报告预测了未来五年内中国高等教育技术应用中的12大技术发展、9大关键趋势和9大重要挑战。通过将这份报告与美国新媒体联盟发布的《地平线报告》(2017高等教育版)进行对比,本研究发现,在技术的重要发展方面,两份报告都同意从移动学习到人工智能的进阶;在技术应用的关键趋势方面,两份报告都提到了从有形的学习形式和学习空间到无形的创新和深度学习理念的转变;在技术应用的重大挑战方面,两份报告都认同从提升素养、整合学习形式到重塑教师角色的难度升级。同时,中国高教版《地平线报告》还存在一些独特的个性特点:在技术的重要发展方面,报告展现了技术发展的多元化和深入化;在技术应用的关键趋势方面,凸显出全球化与中国特色并存的特点;在技术应用的重大挑战方面,强调了平衡技术应用的正负面效应。此外,本文详述了中国高等教育地平线项目的执行过程及研究方法,为其他同类研究提供了参考。

Horizon Report of New Media Consortium （NMC） contributes to the prediction and description of emerging technologies which have a significant impact on education in the next five years worldwide. But it is hard for this report to provide precise suggestions for education in China. In order to help administrators and practitioners of higher education in China to know more about the development of ICT and promote the construction of ＂double top ＂of Chinese universities , Smart Learning Institute （SLI） of Beijing Normal University and NMC eollaboratively release the first horizon report specific to higher education in China： 2017 NMC Technology Outlook for Higher Education in China：A Horizon Project Regional Report, which forecasts twelve developments, nine key trends and nine significant challenges of emerging technologies in Chinese higher education in the next five years. After the comparison between Chinese report and NMC Horizon Report, the study finds that both reports highlight the advancement from mobile learning to artificial intelligence regarding the important developments in technology. As for the key trends, both reports mention the changes from tangible learning forms and learning space to intangible innovation and deep learning. In terms of the challenges, both reports agree the increasing difficulties from improving literacy and integrating different learning modes to rethinking the roles of teachers. Meanwhile, Chinese version of Horizon Report has its unique features. In the aspect of important developments in tc^chnology, it presents diverse and in-depth technological development. For key trends, the report highlights lhe coexistence of globalization and Chinese characteristics. As to great challenges, Chinese report stresses the balance between positive and negative effects of technology. Moreover, this paper describes the implementation process and research method （Delphi method） of CHE Horizon Report in detail, which provides reference for similar studies.