基于产能利用率测度下的中国产能过剩问题研究

Research on Overcapacity Problem in China Based on the Capacity Utilization Measure

为了更全面的认识和分析中国产能过剩情况,借鉴已有文献,对中国产能利用率首次使用X-12-ARIMA调整方法进行研究。以国民经济行业分类两位码的32个工业行业为研究对象,采用面板协整方法估算产能,在对产出进行X-12-ARIMA调整以剔除经济周期性偏差后,测度产能利用率,并以此对产能过剩行业进行了理论及实际分析。研究表明:经过调整的产能利用率较未进行调整的产能利用率更低;各行业每年产能利用率分布情况相近,钢铁、电解铝等行业的产能过剩是长期存在的整体工业行业产能存在结构性过剩,而非全面性过剩。同时,在此基础上,提出了对产能过剩治理方面的政策建议。

For a more comprehensive understanding and analysis of situation of excess production capacity in China, drawing lessons from existing literature, for the first time this paper uses adjusted method to study the domestic capacity utilization. With 32 double-digit industries as the research object, this article uses the panel cointegration method to estimate the capacity firstly, then measures capacity utilization by using X - 12 - ARIMA adjusted method in the output, and finally analyzes overcapacity industries in theory and in practice. The result shows that the capacity utilization on adjusted basis is lower than that without adjusted method; industry capacity utilization distribution is similar every year, then iron and steel, electrolytic aluminum industry overcapacity is long-standing; there is structural overcapacity rather than a comprehensive one in the overall industry. In the end, according to the result of overcapacity situation, policy suggestions are put forward.