世界油气格局新特点及其影响分析

The new characteristics of world oil & gas market structure and its influence

20世纪后期特别是页岩革命以来,世界油气生产和消费的空间格局发生了重大变化。最明显的变化是石油生产和消费中心趋于多元化,消费中心向苏伊士以东,特别是东亚-南亚-中东弧形带转移,促使中东石油出口的主要方向由西方转向东方,同时国际贸易更加灵活。天然气发展更快,特别是液化天然气的发展使天然气形成基本统一的国际市场。世界油气生产持续增长和发达国家消费增长停滞甚至萎缩导致的供需宽平衡、供大于需成为今后一段时期的基本态势,油气价格将维持在相对较低的水平。油气进口国在国际市场上的影响力相对增加,这有利于中国参与国际市场的运作。油气格局的变化促进了油气政治属性的淡化和商品属性的凸显;期货交易的发展增强了油气的金融属性,使金融运作对油气市场的影响增加。

Since the late 20th century, especially the Shale Revolution, the spatial framework of the oil and gas production and consumption has changed drastically. The most obvious changes reflect as follows： the production and consumption of oil and gas has been diversifying, the center of consumption shifted east towards from Suez Canal, specifically towards the arc-belt of East Asia-South Asia-Middle East with the main direction of Middle East oil exports conversing to the east from the west, international trades is more flexible. It finds that natural gas developed so fast as to form a relatively unified international market particularly with development of LNG. The steady growth of oil and gas production as well as the stagnation, or even shrinkage of developed countries＇ consumptions caused the international supply exceeding the demand and low prices of oil and gas, which further offered import countries louder voice in global oil and gas market and made China participate international market operation easier. The change in the structure of global oil and gas market decreases the political attribute of oil and gas, and increases their values of commodities. Meanwhile, the growth of trade of oil and gas futures tttms them into financial derivatives, leaving financial operations to impose more profound influences on the market of oil and gas.