进口贸易与经济增长——基于北京市的实证分析

Import Trade and Economic Growth: Empirical Analysis of Beijing

本文分别利用2001—2014年的时间序列数据和行业面板数据,从宏观、行业两个视角出发,针对进口贸易对北京市经济增长的促进作用进行实证分析。研究结果表明:不管是从宏观视角,还是从行业视角,进口贸易对北京市经济增长的促进作用都是正效应;从行业视角来看,进口贸易对劳动密集型行业、资本密集型行业经济增长的促进作用都是显著的正效应。因此,北京市政府应该积极鼓励各类企业特别是民营企业扩大进口贸易,进一步扩大先进生产设备、高新技术产品的进口规模,利用贸易的技术溢出效应优化产业结构,改善国内的生产条件,提高生产效率,进而促进北京地区的经济增长。

This paper, using time series data and industry-level panel data from 2001 to 2014, empirically analyzed the positive effect of import trade on the economic growth in Beijing from macroscopic and industrial perspectives. The results show that： both from macroscopic and industrial perspectives, imports have positive effect on the economic growth in Beijing; from the industrial perspective, import trade promotes the growth in labour-intensive and capital-intensive industries significantly. Therefore, Beijing government should actively encourage enterprises of all types （ especially private enterprises） to expand the scale of import trade, as well as the scale of：-importing advanced production equipment and high- products in further. By using these advanced production equipment and high-tech products,the industrial structure can be optimized and the domestic production conditions can be promote economic growth improved, which will help increase productivity and thereby