摘要
准确的预测航线的客流量,对于航空企业制定航线销售政策有着重要的作用.针对民航客流量预测具有诸多不确定性和数据不足的特点,在选取某航空公司近六年三亚-北京往返航线数据的基础上,提出以回归分析、灰色预测方法对该航线2016年的客流量进行分析预测.经实证分析,结果表明:灰色预测方法对航线客流量的预测的精确度较高,对航空公司预估客流量和制订销售政策有直接的指导意义.
The accurate prediction on airline passenger flow plays an important role in sales policy for aviation enterprises. Based on the data of Sanya-Beijing route of a particular airline in 6 years, this paper uses the regression analysis, gray forecast method to analyze the passenger flow in 2016.The result shows the Grey forecasting method of airline passenger flow forecasting is more accurate than others, which sets a significantly guiding model for airlines sales policies.
出处
《计算机系统应用》
2017年第7期221-226,共6页
Computer Systems & Applications
基金
2014年三亚市院地合作科技项目(2014YD52)
关键词
航线数据
回归分析
灰色预测模型
客流量
air route data
regression analysis
grey prediction model
passenger flow
