乌克兰危机、俄欧能源博弈与伊核问题全面破局

Ukraine Crisis,Russia-EU Energy Games,and Breakthrough in Iran Nuclear Issue

乌克兰危机致使俄罗斯与西方矛盾进一步激化;与此同时,双方的能源博弈也达到新的烈度,集中体现于更加激烈的油气管道走向以及与之密切相关的气源地的争夺上。伊朗具有巨大能源潜力和显著的地缘优势,因此,在乌克兰危机背景下,其在俄罗斯与西方的能源博弈中愈加成为双方重点关注的对象。对西方、特别是欧盟而言,解除对伊朗的经济制裁是发挥伊朗的能源潜力、有效应对俄罗斯的必要条件,而解除对伊朗的制裁与限制伊朗的核活动密切相关,这就增强了早日达成伊核问题全面协议的必要性;同时,在乌克兰危机背景下,俄罗斯支持伊核问题全面破局对其有特殊的政治意义,而且"破局"本身虽然会对其产生一些负面影响,但也为其发展与伊朗的经贸关系提供了机会。

The Ukraine crisis further intensified the conflict between Russia and the West.At the same time,energy games between the two sides have reached a new intensity,which is shown by their growing competition in the pipeline routes and the related gas sources.Iran has great energy potential and striking geographic advantages,so against the background of Ukraine crisis,it becomes an increasingly important concern for both Russia and the EU in their energy games.For the West,especially the EU,lift of sanctions on Iran is a necessary condition for giving play to Iran's energy potential and for EU to effectively deal with Russia.Removing sanctions on Iran is closely related to restricting Iran's nuclear activities,which increases the necessity to reach a comprehensive deal on Iran nuclear issue at an early date.At the same time,against the background of the Ukraine crisis,Russia's support to the breakthrough in Iran nuclear issue is of special political significance to Russia itself,and the breakthrough itself would provide Russia with opportunities to develop trading ties with Iran,though it would also have some negative effects on it.