成熟期石油资源型城市人地系统脆弱性评估——以山东省东营市为例

Vulnerability Assessment and Obstacles about Man-Land Systems of Oil City in Mature Period—A Case Study of Dongying City in Shandong Province

利用集对分析方法分析1995—2014年东营市人地系统整体及其内部经济子系统、社会子系统和生态环境子系统的应对能力、敏感性和脆弱性,运用障碍度模型分析影响东营市应对能力的障碍因素,得出以下结论:(1)东营市经济子系统、社会子系统和生态环境子系统敏感性呈下降趋势、应对能力逐渐增强,脆弱性持续下降.(2)东营市人地系统由较高敏感型、脆弱型资源型城市向较低敏感型、脆弱型资源型城市转变,应对能力是东营市人地系统脆弱性的主要影响因素.(3)"障碍度"分析表明产业结构单一、劳动力结构性失业、环境污染严重是影响应对能力降低的主要因子.研究认为,应从调整产业结构、优化城市空间、完善社会保障、减少"三废排放"等方面降低东营市人地系统脆弱性.

Based on the data during the period of 1995-2014, in this work, we employed a set of analytical methods to assess capacity, sensitivity, and vulnerability of man-land systems and its internal economic, social, and ecological subsystems in Dongying city.We utilized the obstacle model to analyze the factors hindering the coping capability for its further development.Our results show that： （1） The city is in upward mode in its coping capability, but its sensitivity and vulnerability are in overall downward trend.（2） Dongying city＇s man-land system is being transformed from a high-sensitive and fragile resource-based city to a less sensitive and fragile type of resource-based city, and its coping capability is a deciding factor to impact the vulnerability of the man land system in Dongying city.（3） Obstacle analysis indicates that undiversified industrial structure, structural imbalance of labor force and environmental pollution are the most important factors affecting the regional vulnerability degree.Our research suggests that we need to focus on adjusting industrial structure, optimizing urban space, improving social security, and reducing waste emissions to decrease the vulnerability of Dongying city＇s man-land system.