基于AVL数据的公交运行可靠性评价及影响因素分析

AVL-based evaluation and influence factors analysis of bus service reliability

结合成都市48路公交线路全天车辆自动定位(automatic vehicle location,AVL)数据,定量分析公交运行可靠性及其相关关系。对比证明区间运行时间均值与其标准差的对数呈现更为显著的线性关系后,量化指标区段长度、信号交叉口个数、公交专用道长度、站点个数、时间段,并细化指标沿线土地利用性质,建立多元线性回归模型以解释造成区间运行时间波动的原因。考虑到不可靠性会随着车辆的运行而逐步向后续区段传播的特性,提出了在因变量中加入前一区段运行波动性这一指标,以从时间和空间两个层面探究造成公交运行不可靠的原因,最终证明区段间公交运行可靠性存在较强的关联性。

This paper made a quantitative analysis of bus service reliability by the automatic vehicle location record of route 48 throughout a day in Chengdu. It firstly validated a clear monotonic positive association between the mean value and logarithm standard deviation of bus travel time. Then it .quantized indexes including section＇ s length, the number of signal intersection and station, bus lane＇ s length, periods of time as well as land-use intensity so that it could established a multiple-linear re- gression model to explore factors which could be having an influence on the volatility of travel time. Considering the features that the volatility was back stations propagation with bus running, this paper added an index to describe the volatility in pre stations. The result shows that there is high correlation of bus service reliability between adjacent stations.