基于可靠性数据的航材备件需求预测方法

Forecasting Method of Aviation Material Spare Parts Demand Based on Reliability Data

航材备件的需求预测已成为装备综合保障领域研究的难点。主要对各部件寿命分布类型进行归纳与总结,建立多数零件服从寿命分布类型的需求预测模型,并对军机执行任务这一特殊情况建立了战损备件预测模型。以可靠性数据为研究基础,对正态分布、指数分布、威布尔分布等备件进行分类分析,根据实际情况逐步精确备件保障概率的取值。计算结果表明,方法能给出合理的备件保障概率和备件需求预测结果。

The demand forecast of spare parts for aviation materials has become the difficulty of the re-search of equipment comprehensive security field. In this paper,the life distribution types of each compo-nent are summarized and summarized, the demand forecasting model of most parts to obey the life distri-bution type is established, and the prediction model of warfare spare parts for the special situation of mili-tary mission is established. Based on the reliability data,the classification of the normal distribution,expo-nential distribution ,Weibull distribution and so on is classified according to the actual situation, and the precision of the spare parts is determined according to the actual situation . The results show that the method can give reasonable results of spare parts protection and spare parts demand forecast.