人口老龄化、技术创新与经济增长——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

Population Aging,Technological Innovation and Economic Growth:Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data of China

通常认为人口老龄化会导致技术创新水平下降并制约经济增长,本文通过理论分析和实证检验对此提出质疑。虽然老年人口本身的创新能力和创新动机会随着年龄增长而下降,但对整个社会而言,老龄化可以通过要素禀赋结构改变和人力资本积累对经济增长产生技术创新效应。利用中国1997-2014年省际面板数据进行实证检验,我们发现,人口老龄化对经济增长具有显著的正向影响,老龄化通过与技术创新的正向交互作用促进了经济增长;随着老龄化程度的加深,老龄化通过技术创新对经济增长影响的总边际效应递增。本文研究证实了老龄化能够通过技术创新路径抵消对经济增长的不利影响。随着中国老龄化深化,加快技术创新、提升高龄劳动力及老年人口对技术变革的适应性对中国积极应对老龄化和实现经济转型发展具有重要意义。

It is generally believed that population aging will decrease technological innovation,which is negative to economic growth. However,we challenge this argument by theoretical analysis and empirical examination. Although the innovation capacity and innovation motivation of the elderly population will decline with age,for society as a whole,aging will generate technological innovation effect on economic growth by changing the structure of factor endowment and the level of human capital. We take an empirical test by using the panel data of 1997-2014 years in China,and find some valuable conclusions： population aging has a significant positive impact on economic growth,which derives from the interaction effect of population aging and technology innovation; with population aging deepening,the total marginal effect of aging on economic growth is increasing through the interaction with technological innovation. The research confirms that aging can offset the adverse effects on economic growth through technological innovation,so as to promote economic growth to labor saving technology biased transformation and development. With the deepening of aging in China,speeding up technological innovation and improving the adaptability of the aged population to technological change has a great significance for China to actively cope with aging and achieve economic restructuring and development.