化解库存量对需求产能效率准确预测仿真

Accurate Prediction of Production Capacity with Inventory Demand

通过化解库存量对需求产能进行预测,能够有效解决我国产业发展中的产能过剩的问题。对需求产能的预测,需要给出库存消化均衡因子,得到各个去库存区域相似性矩阵,完成对产能需求的预测。传统方法先获取库存预测指标权重,得到需求产能预测指标的区域相似性矩阵,但由于得到的矩阵参数混乱,导致预测精度低。提出基于加权偏离度统计的化解库存量的需求产能预测。依据去库存的约束的不同,结合调控对投机性需求的经验合理选择变量的权重,计算变量的加权偏离度,得到去库存的性能预测指标,提取表征去库存状态的特征向量,给出去库存区域内库存消化均衡因子,组建评价各个去库存区域相似性矩阵,完成需求产能的预测。仿真证明,选用方法预测精度和稳定性较高,可以为发展地方经济提供有力的依据。

A prediction method of consuming inventory on efficiency of demand productivity is proposed based on statistics of weighting degree of deviation. Firstly, the weight of variable is selected according to different constraints of consuming inventory, then weighting degree of deviation of variable is calculated to obtain index of performance prediction. Moreover, the feature vector representing state of consuming inventory is extracted, and equivalence factor of inventory consumption in area of consuming inventory is provided to build similarity matrix evaluating each area of consuming inventory. Thus, the prediction is completed. Simulation proves that the method has high prediction preci- sion and stability. It can provide powerful gist for developing local economy.