中国五大城市群经济发展的分布动态及交互影响

Research on the Distributional Dynamic Evolution and Interaction of Economic Development of Five Megalopolises in China

基于2002-2013年城市数据,采用核密度估计、VAR脉冲响应方法实证考察了中国五大城市群经济发展的分布动态及交互影响。研究结论表明:(1)五大城市群经济发展呈现显著的非均衡态势。(2)五大城市群整体及各城市群经济发展水平不断提高;各城市群内部城市间均存在显著的经济发展差距且这种差距在逐渐拉大,出现了两极或多极分化现象。(3)长三角、珠三角经济发展对京津冀、长中游、成渝具有较强的正向影响效应,京津冀与成渝、长中游与成渝之间具有较强的交互影响效应,京津冀对长中游具有较强的正向影响效应,成渝对其他城市群则表现出负向影响效应。

Based on urban data from 2002 to 2013, this paper uses the methods of kernel density nonparametric estimation and VAR impulse response analysis to empirically examine the distributional dynamic evolution and spatial interaction of economic development of five megalopolises in china. Results show that ： （1）The economic development of five megalopolises has obvious disequilibrium character- istics.（2）The level of economic development of megalopolises is improving, there exist significant economic gaps which are gradually widening among the cities and among the megalopolises, and phenomena of polarization or multi differentiation appears.（3）There are strong positive effects on economy from Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Chengdu-Chongqing, and from Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei to the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. There are eco- nomic interaction effects between the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Chengdu-Chongqing, and between Beijing-Tianjin-He- bei and Chengdu-Chongqing. There are negative effects on economy from Chengdu-Chongqing to other megalopolises.