中国推进高铁“走出去”面临的政治风险及其作用机制分析

China's Global Promotion of High-speed Rail:An Analysis of Imminent Political Risk and its Impact

高铁"走出去"是中国工程企业"走出去"的重要组成部分,是实现"一带一路"基础设施互联互通的重要一步。随着中国推进高铁"走出去"进程的加快,中国高铁逐渐深入地参与到全球高铁市场竞争中,由此也遭遇了许多新问题,进而影响了高铁项目的落实,其中最主要的是政治风险。研究发现,政府脆弱性和社会支持度是政治风险影响中国推进高铁"走出去"的核心因素。政府脆弱性决定东道国政府是否有能力持续、稳定地支持高铁计划;社会支持度关系到东道国政府是否有意图持续、稳定地支持高铁计划。为缓解政治风险对高铁项目的消极影响,在今后高铁项目的竞争中,中国要先行做好目标国信息的收集与处理工作,一旦政治风险发生,能够及时通过相关措施,尽量减少政府脆弱性的危害,防止社会支持度的下降。

As China increases the pace of efforts to promote the globalization of its high-speed rail program,it has deepened its involvement in global markets,bringing a range of new challenges, which if not addressed,threaten to impact the implementation of these high-speed rail projects.Of these challenges,the most pressing is political risk.Research shows that the political risk factors which represent the greatest threat to the promotion of China's high-speed railway going-out aregovernment vulnerability and low levels of social supporting.As a means of checking the negative impacts that political risk has on high-speed rail projects,as it competes for projects,China must proactively collect relevant data with respect to target countries,and in the event of political risk,it must immediately adopt measures to reduce the damage that could be caused by governmentvulnerability.At the same time,it must adopt measures to prevent a lapse in levels of social support.